Hiding in Plain Sight

I came across this article and didn't quite know what to make of it. After seeing the check marks under gun control, I figured a check mark was a negative. While chatting with a friend online the following ensued.

me: I think Fred's low-profile is a plus.
me: I think his candidacy from the beginning must've been pointedly stealthy.
me: Look at the first announced: Guiliani, Romney.
buddy: yeah
me: Early vetting ruined their conservative bona fides.
buddy: but you cant be too low-key in a presidential election
me: So he's pickin' it up relatively unscathed just prior to the primaries.
me: The early start is starting to eat away even at Hillary.
me: Look how Huck went from no-pub to oh-my-not-that-much-pub too quickly.

There are many twists and turns in presidential elections. Recall how Howard Dean went from frontrunner to nutcase in short order.

And later...

me: I know who your horses are; who do you think can win?
me: Especially GOP?
buddy: I like to watch how the caucuses turn out
buddy: this first one is very important
buddy: after it, we should see a few candidates emerge as the top
me: My GOP will-lose pile: Guiliani, Romney, Huckabee.
buddy: will-lose?
buddy: aren't they the top picks?
buddy: lol
me: Cannot win the presidency.
buddy: the presidency or the primary
buddy: I doubt any republican will be able to win the actual presidential election
me: Conservatives aren't going to hold their noses and vote for the 'annointed one' this time.
me: It's gotta be a conservative.
buddy: well, that wont help if there is a split
me: I'd say if you have a hypothetical Romney GOP candidate, 10 million would vote non-GOP in some way.
me: Suddenly, you don't need 51% of the vote; even Hillary can manage that.